Interpreting Trend Graphs
Trend graphs can be used to examine progress over time for select measures and can be found on each county snapshot page or on the measure page for a state (in the "data" tab). Below are examples of trend graphs that demonstrate various relationships among county, state, and national level data. Interpretations for each county trend are based on linear regressions for all years of data included in the graph.
Decreasing (improving) trend – similar to state and national trends
This graph shows an improving trend in Unemployment for Bedford County. The change appears linear and is happening at a similar rate to the state and national trends. It can be inferred that the changes in the unemployment rate are due to larger state or national changes that have taken place, rather than changes unique to local conditions. Changes such as these are unlikely to cause changes in a county's ranks, since the county is progressing at the same rate as the state as a whole.
Decreasing (improving) trend – not keeping up with state and national trends
This graph shows an improving trend in Premature death for Philadelphia County. The change appears relatively linear but is happening at a slower rate than change in the state and national trends. This might mean the improvements happening at the state or national level are not reaching Philadelphia County, or changes at the local level are preventing greater improvement. County level trends like this, which don't keep up with the state and national trends, can lead to worsening county rank.
Decreasing (improving) trend – improving faster than state and national trends
This graph shows an improving trend in Preventable hospital stays for Niobrara County. The change appears linear and is happening at a faster rate than the change in the state and national trends. This might mean that changes at the local level are causing greater (faster) improvement. County level trends like this, which are improving faster than the state and national trends, can lead to improved county rank.
Increasing (worsening) trend (with lots of uncertainty) - not significantly different from state or national trend
This graph shows a worsening trend in Alcohol-impaired driving deaths for Montague County. There is a good deal of uncertainty around the slope estimate for Montague County, most likely due to this being a smaller county with smaller numbers of deaths. It is hard to interpret the meaning of these findings, other than to be aware that that this area may be a worsening concern.
Increasing (worsening) trend – significantly different from state and national trends
This graph shows a worsening trend in Preventable hospital stays for Red River Parish. This trend is significantly worse than the state and national trends. Red River Parish started with among the worst rates of Preventable hospitalizations in Louisiana, and the rate has gotten worse (moving further from the state and national trends), while the average rate in Louisiana has improved. This suggests that something in Red River Parish is causing continuing and worsening problems with Preventable hospital stays.
Stable trend – similar to state and national trends
This graph shows a relatively stable trend in Preventable hospital stays for Broward County. This trend is not significantly better or worse than the state and national trends.
Stable trend – significantly different from state and national trends
This graph shows a relatively stable trend in Preventable hospital stays for Mississippi County. However, this trend is significantly worse than the state and national trends. This might mean the improvements happening in the state or nation are not reaching Mississippi County. This type of situation might cause a change in ranks for the county, even with a stable trend.